Semi-empirical prediction method for monthly precipitation prediction based on environmental factors and comparison with stochastic and machine learning models     

Huihui Zhang  Hugo A. Loáiciga  Fu Ren  Da Ha 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(11):1928-1942

ABSTRACT

Precipitation prediction is central in hydrology and water resources planning and management. This paper introduces a semi-empirical predictive model to predict monthly precipitation and compares its predictive skill with those of machine learning (ML) methods. The stochastic method presented herein estimates monthly precipitation with one-step-ahead prediction properties. The ML predictive skill of the algorithms is evaluated by predicting monthly precipitation relying on the statistical association between precipitation and environmental and topographic factors. The semi-empirical predictive model features non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) for investigating the influence of multiple predictor variables on precipitation. The semi-empirical predictive model’s parameters are optimized with the hybrid genetic algorithm (GA) and Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LM), or GALMA, yielding a validated model with high predictive skill. The methodologies are illustrated with data from Hubei Province, China, which comprise 27 meteorological station datasets from 1988–2017. The empirical results provide valuable insights for developing semi-empirical rainfall prediction models.  相似文献   

等效介质理论中裂缝密度的适用性研究          下载免费PDF全文

帅达  魏建新  狄帮让  黄兴兴  刘子淳  苏慧敏 《地球物理学报》2019,62(7):2697-2710

为了比较裂缝等效介质理论的预测精度,本文利用物理模拟的方法制作了一组9个裂隙密度模型,其中裂隙密度从0增大到12%,裂隙厚度和直径保持不变,分别为0.12mm和3mm.使用0.5MHz的纵横波换能器,采用脉冲透射法得到纵横波的速度和各向异性.然后,将基质的模量、裂缝填充物模量和裂缝参数代入等效介质理论中,计算出纵横波速度和各向异性随着裂隙密度的变化情况.通过纵横波速度的实测值与等效介质理论的定量对比,发现当裂隙密度小于12%时,Hudson理论和线性滑动理论对纵波速度的预测与实测值非常吻合.当裂隙密度小于8%时,Hudson理论和线性滑动理论对快横波速度的预测与实测值非常吻合.当裂隙密度小于9%时,各向异性自洽理论和NIA(非相互作用近似)理论对慢横波速度的预测与实测值非常吻合.通过纵横波速度各向异性实测值与理论计算值定量对比,发现当裂隙密度小于12%时,Hudson理论和线性滑动理论对纵波速度各向异性的预测与实测值更吻合;当裂隙密度小于6%时,各向异性自洽理论和NIA理论对横波速度各向异性的预测与实测值更吻合.  相似文献   

地球物理场流动观测数据管理系统建设     

周克昌  纪寿文  郑智江  刘文龙 《震灾防御技术》2017,12(1):78-84

本文主要介绍了地球物理场流动观测数据管理系统的主要功能和关键技术。本系统主要功能包括流动地磁观测基础信息管理、数据入库、数据目录总览、数据浏览及备份、备份数据入库、数据库检查等。通过本系统的数据备份和备份数据入库功能,可按观测任务期次进行数据备份,并较好地解决了单位间的数据交换问题。数据目录让用户和管理者能够一目了然地了解库里的数据内容。数据库检查则可以定期对数据的正确性和一致性进行检查,以清除数据垃圾,保持数据库的健康性。  相似文献   

使用辽宁地区P波走时反演一维速度模型     

王承伟  陶达  梁一婧 《防灾减灾学报》2017,33(2)

选取辽宁地震台网记录到的67个天然地震,使用单纯型法定位方法和Pn/Pg联合测定深度的方法,对震中和震源深度测定,提取定位结果的P波走时数据。使用理论走时公式,将已知变量和未知变量分离,利用走时公式,构造方程组进行求解,反演得到两层均匀速度模型。使用Hyposat定位程序,对此次研究的模型和目前使用的华南模型进行定位对比,定位结果优于华南模型。  相似文献   

定量表征压实和胶结作用的砂岩声波速度岩石物理模型          下载免费PDF全文

韩学辉  徐登辉  郭俊鑫  杨龙  王振林  张达  罗兴平  聂俊光  李昊  江佳洋 《地球物理学报》2018,61(12):5044-5051

成岩作用是影响砂岩声波速度的地质因素之一,定量表征压实和胶结作用的砂岩声波速度岩石物理模型具有重要的理论和实践应用意义.选取视压实率和视胶结率定量表征砂岩成岩作用,通过建立视压实率与颗粒配位数的关系将压实作用的影响引入修正的定量表征胶结作用的CCT模型,最终建立了一种能够定量表征压实和胶结作用对砂岩声波速度影响的岩石物理模型.理论考察发现,随胶结率的增大,岩石声波速度首先迅速增大,随后趋于稳定;随视压实率增大,岩石声波速度同样逐渐增大,当胶结率较大时声波速度变化更为明显.为了验证该声波速度模型,分别对人造砂岩和天然样品进行了声波速度实验观测,结果表明：实验结果与理论分析的趋势吻合良好.该模型易于使用,能够为应用地震和测井资料识别有利储层、定量评价孔隙度以及开展横波速度预测等应用提供理论基础.  相似文献   

Tracking modal parameters from building seismic response data using recursive subspace identification algorithm          下载免费PDF全文

Chin‐Hsiung Loh  Jun‐Da Chen 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(13):2163-2183

Tracking modal parameters and estimating the current structural state of a building from seismic response measurements, particularly during strong earthquake excitations, can provide useful information for building safety assessment and the adaptive control of a structure. Therefore, online or recursive identification techniques need to be developed and implemented for building seismic response monitoring. This paper develops and examines different methods to track modal parameters from building seismic response data. The methods include recursive data‐driven subspace identification (RSI‐DATA) using Givens rotation algorithm, and RSI‐DATA using Bona fide algorithm. The question on how well the results of RSI‐DATA reflect the real condition is investigated and verified with a bilinear SDOF simulation study. Time‐varying modal parameters of a four‐story reinforced concrete school building are identified based on a series of earthquake excitations, including several seismic events, large and small. Discussions on the different methods' ability to track the time‐varying modal parameters are presented. The variation of the identified building modal frequencies and damping ratios from a series of event‐by‐event seismic responses, particularly before and after retrofitting of the building is also discussed. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A Research on the 2014 Wenzhou M4.2 Earthquake in the Shanxi Reservoir     

Zou Zhenxuan  Ma Zhijiang  Zhou Xinmin  Zhang Fan  Li Jun  Li Jinlong 《中国地震研究》2017,31(4):455-462

Complete records of more than 3,000 earthquake events in the Shanxi, Wenzhou reservoir earthquake sequence were recorded from August to November,2014 by the high-density,high-resolution monitoring stations of the Zhejiang Regional Digital Seismic Network and the reservoir earthquake monitoring network,with a maximum magnitude of M4. 2. Based on 3-D epicenter location, focal mechanism solutions, and in combination with the geological and tectonic characteristics of the reservoir area,the earthquake sequence is discussed in this paper. The linear fitting of the Hypo SAT location results show that the main shock occurred in the NW trending fault and the earthquake sequence is concentrated in bands along the active faults,with a strike of305 °,dipping SW with dip angle of 85 °. By using P-wave first motion symbols, we obtained the average focal mechanism of M ≥ 3. 5 earthquakes,with a strike 308 ° and dip 84 ° for nodal plane II. The field geological survey and research show that the strike,dip and rake of nodal plane II are roughly consistent with the occurrence of the Shuangxi-Jiaoxi fault. The comprehensive analysis reveals that the NW-trending Shuangxi-Jiaoxi fault is the seismogenic structure of the earthquakes.  相似文献   

地质力学在塔里木盆地油气勘查中的重大进展   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

康玉柱  康志江 《地质力学学报》1995,1(2):1-10

笔者在塔里木盆地进行石油地质研究和勘查工作中,运用地质力学理论与方法系统研究了塔里木盆地的成生发展及构造体系的划分,通过确定含油气区-选择油气富集带-寻找油气田-评价油气田的全过程的实践,在塔里木盆地实现了我国古生代海相油气田的重大突破;并提出了我国古生代海相成油理论。   相似文献   

Distribution of throughfall and stemflow in multi‐strata agroforestry,perennial monoculture,fallow and primary forest in central Amazonia,Brazil     

Gtz Schroth  Luciana Ferreira Da Silva  Marc‐Andree Wolf  Wenceslau Geraldes Teixeira  Wolfgang Zech 《水文研究》1999,13(10):1423-1436

The partitioning of rain water into throughfall, stemflow and interception loss when passing through plant canopies depends on properties of the respective plant species, such as leaf area and branch angles. In heterogeneous vegetation, such as tropical forest or polycultural systems, the presence of different plant species may consequently result in a mosaic of situations with respect to quantity and quality of water inputs into the soil. As these processes influence not only the water availability for the plants, but also water infiltration and nutrient leaching, the understanding of plant effects on the repartitioning of rain water may help in the optimization of land use systems and management practices. We measured throughfall and stemflow in a perennial polyculture (multi‐strata agroforestry), monocultures of peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) for fruit and for palmito, a monoculture of cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum), spontaneous fallow and primary forest during one year in central Amazonia, Brazil. The effect on rain water partitioning was measured separately for four useful tree species in the polyculture and for two tree species in the primary forest. Throughfall at two stem distances, and stemflow, differed significantly between tree species, resulting in pronounced spatial patterns of water input into the soil in the polyculture system. For two tree species, peach palm for fruit (Bactris gasipaes) and Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa), the water input into the soil near the stem was significantly higher than the open‐area rainfall. This could lead to increased nutrient leaching when fertilizer is applied close to the stem of these trees. In the primary forest, such spatial patterns could also be detected, with significantly higher water input near a palm (Oenocarpus bacaba) than near a dicotyledonous tree species (Eschweilera sp.). Interception losses were 6·4% in the polyculture, 13·9 and 12·3% in the peach palm monocultures for fruit and for palmito, respectively, 0·5% in the cupuaçu monoculture and 3·1% in the fallow. With more than 20% of the open‐area rainfall, the highest stemflow contributions to the water input into the soil were measured in the palm monocultures and in the fallow. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

CTD传感器中磁力泵的设计     

周达  商红梅  康建军  张少永 《海洋技术学报》2009,28(3)

简要介绍了自持式剖面探测漂流浮标(以下简称剖面浮标或Argo浮标)电导率、温度和压力传感器(简称CTD传感器)中磁力泵的整体结构、工作原理、叶轮的设计方法,分析了磁力耦合器的设计思路.由此设计的磁力泵变动密封为静密封,达到无泄漏.该方法可作为磁力驱动装置的理论设计依据.  相似文献